Bitcoin Holders Realize Losses as Profit Dynamics Turn Negative: CryptoQuant

What are the implications in terms of cycle development?

For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin holders are realizing losses on their investment in the leading digital asset. This change in dynamics comes as BTC and the broader crypto market are believed to be on the brink of a bear cycle.

According to a weekly CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin holders have not seen this shift since October 2023. The negative turn in profit dynamics has dominated the past 30 days.

Bitcoin Sees Change in Profit Dynamics

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders have realized losses accumulating to 69,000 BTC since December 23. This is the first time network participants have realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023.

The Bitcoin network has witnessed a decline in realized profits since March 2024. The plunge came with prices losing momentum as the bull phase came to an end. Analysts found similarities between the current market dynamic and the 2021-2022 bull cycle. After realized net profits peaked in January 2021, they began to decline. February and November 2021 saw a series of lower local tops, followed by net losses. Notably, BTC holders realized lower net profits at higher prices at the time.

Following a similar trend, realized net profits peaked in January 2024. Since then, there have been a series of lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, the profit margin has turned negative, and holders are realizing net losses.

Early-stage Bear Market Signs

Bitcoin net realized profits have fallen from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC currently, a level not seen since March 2024. Analysts said this level is similar to that seen in March 2022, during the early stages of the last bear market.

Interestingly, current net realized losses are also following patterns similar to trends seen in March 2022. At the time, the bear market was already underway, and bitcoin’s price had lost its momentum. Considering investor sentiment and speculation surrounding the market, this dynamic confirms that the bear market has indeed begun.

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Analysts have confirmed that most on-chain metrics and profit dynamics are consistent with early-stage bear market conditions. Last week, CryptoPotato reported that bitcoin’s demand conditions had improved; however, the improvement did not trigger any significant changes. There are no remarkable shifts in demand from exchange-traded funds or spot indicators. Instead, demand has contracted over the past 30 days.