Iran closes Strait of Hormuz after US maintains blockade

Iran has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz following the US decision to continue its blockade. Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 sits at 86% YES in the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market.

Market reaction

The May 31 market still prices a high probability for a blockade lift, but shorter-term sub-markets tell a different story. The April 19 sub-market dropped more sharply and now sits at 9.5% YES, showing traders are skeptical about an imminent resolution.

The Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz market has UK warship passage by April 30 at just 8% YES. The closure raises the risk of any naval transit through the strait.

Why it matters

The strait’s closure puts direct pressure on the US-Iran ceasefire. The “Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken” market now prices a ceasefire breakdown at 9% YES, meaning traders expect escalation rather than de-escalation.

This market’s total face value is $165,139, with $33,928 in actual USDC traded. Liquidity is thin: $3,730 can shift the May 31 odds by 5 points. The largest recent move was a modest 2-point spike, suggesting the market has absorbed today’s news without panic.

What to watch

For contrarians, buying YES on the UK warship market at 6¢ pays 16.7x if tensions ease unexpectedly, though the odds reflect how unlikely traders consider that outcome.

Watch for Trump’s next Truth Social posts or official White House communications. Any shift in US naval posture or Iranian compliance could move these markets fast.

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