Strait of Hormuz blockade raises oil supply concerns amid US-Iran tensions

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, is at the center of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. On Polymarket, the probability of Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at a low level, with the Trump’s Military Operations in Iran market showing minimal trading volume and no signs of a shift.

Market reaction

The WTI Crude Oil Prices in April 2026 market has drawn more interest as the strait’s blockade raises oil supply concerns. The probability of WTI hitting $160 in April is 1.4% YES, but the market recently saw a 25-point spike, showing how reactive traders are to geopolitical shifts. Trade volume over the last 24 hours was $2,814 in actual USDC traded, against a face-value trading volume of $72,164. It takes $1,655 to move this market 5 points, indicating moderate depth.

Why it matters

The standoff between Washington and Tehran shows no clear path to resolution, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade directly threatens global oil supply. The 25-point spike in the WTI market, the largest recent move, signals that traders are positioned to react quickly to further escalation.

What to watch

U.S. diplomatic moves or military updates, particularly any changes to the naval blockade or the status of talks in Pakistan, would be the most direct catalysts for movement in both the military operations and oil price markets.

Trade snapshot

At 1.4% YES for WTI hitting $160, a YES share priced at 1.4¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 71x return. That payout depends entirely on continued or worsening disruption at the strait.

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